“Incredible wrestling,” Volkanovski said of his challenger at Wednesday’s media day. “One of the best in the UFC, definitely the best in our division. But again, it’s just not enough for me, you know what I mean?”
The champion went further than most would. “To be honest, I believe if we went five rounds of no strikes and just wrestling, grappling, I’ll beat him there,” he said. “I think he’s got great wrestling, but when it comes to MMA and all that sort of stuff, it’s just it’s not enough.” He framed Evloev’s likely approach in blunt terms: “He’s going to try and hang on, and that still won’t be enough.”
The numbers explain both men’s confidence. Evloev, 20-0, has landed 49 takedowns across his 10 UFC wins, including 22 against the top contenders he has beaten on his way to this shot: Lerone Murphy, Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen and Diego Lopes. Volkanovski, 28-4, has given up just 10 takedowns in his featherweight wins over the past decade, and he won every one of those fights. The only opponent to repeatedly put him down was Islam Makhachev, who landed four takedowns in their lightweight title fight, a different weight class and a different problem. Volkanovski’s case is that takedowns alone do not win rounds against him: get him down, and he believes the scrambles back to his feet come quickly, and the fight returns to the striking exchanges where he has pulled away from elite opponents for years.
The stakes are historic for the champion. Volkanovski, a two-time featherweight titleholder, is making the second defence of the belt he reclaimed, and a win on Saturday would give him the most title-fight victories in UFC featherweight history. For Evloev, the stakes are simpler and just as large: an undefeated record, a first title shot, and the chance to prove that the division’s most effective wrestler can impose that wrestling on its most accomplished champion. Waiting for the winner is a growing queue, led by Jean Silva, who called for a title shot after his Noche UFC win in September.
The rest of the main card, which starts at 2 p.m. ET on Paramount+ because of the Abu Dhabi time zone, is built to match. The co-main event completes one of the sport’s best rivalries, as bantamweight champion Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili meet for a third time with the series level at one apiece, and Song Yadong waiting on the winner. At flyweight, No. 6 Lone’er Kavanagh, who beat Brandon Moreno earlier this year and is aiming to push back into the top five, meets No. 10 Ramazan Temirov in a fight the books have as close to a coin flip. At heavyweight, No. 2 Alexander Volkov faces No. 7 Rizvan Kuniev in a matchup with clear implications for a division reshaped by Tom Aspinall’s vacated title. And at featherweight, Aaron Pico meets Losene Keita, another result that will matter in Volkanovski and Evloev’s own division. The prelims, which begin at 12 p.m. ET, feature Dominick Reyes against Azamat Murzakanov at light heavyweight and Grant Dawson against Nurullo Aliev at lightweight.
Two title fights, two divisions with challengers already lined up, and a champion who has spent the week telling an unbeaten wrestler that wrestling will not be enough. On Saturday, Evloev gets 25 minutes to prove otherwise.
