By the end of the night, UFC 264 is sure to have long-lasting ramifications on the Ultimate Fighting Championship, several divisions, and the careers of headliners Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor. With so much on the line tomorrow night inside Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena, here are four bold predictions to prepare you for what’s to come at UFC 264.
UFC 264 will not top UFC 229 in PPV buys
Let’s just get this out of the way first. For all the hyperbole and grand boasts McGregor and UFC President Dana White have tossed out about UFC 264 trending towards record numbers, it will not outpace UFC 229. Although Saturday night’s event has a lot of things going for it, like a rare UFC trilogy fight and the most famous star in the sport headlining, it does not have the momentum UFC 229 had in October of 2018.
That event featured McGregor making his triumphant return to the Octagon for the first time in two years, and the hype behind him was at epic levels following his unsuccessful foray into boxing versus multi-division champion Floyd Mayweather. Furthermore, he was on an actual MMA win streak when he entered the Octagon to face unbeaten champion Khabib Nurmagomedov in the main event. Tomorrow night, “Notorious” comes back to the Octagon having lost two of his last three, and many wonder if the fighter he once was is long gone.
Then there is the most important tidbit of all, UFC 229 came after the infamous dolly-gate incident at Barclay’s center before UFC 223. Furthermore, while Poirier is a notable star in the sport, Nurmagomedov’s international fandom, even then, supersedes the popularity of “Diamond” today.
It had all the heat and ingredients for a delicious money-making delight that may never be surpassed. UFC 264 may break some records, but not any held by Nurmagomedov versus McGregor at UFC 229.
The “Old Conor McGregor” is dead and is not showing up
https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA/status/1413344215430361090
Despite his best efforts, and taking his trash talk to new lows by throwing around innuendos about his opponent’s wife, the version of Conor McGregor that held up two title belts in 2016 is long gone. For so long–even during a dreadful multi-city marketing campaign for his bout with Mayweather–fans ate up McGregors overly bold antics. It worked when that’s all we ever saw.
Then he returned to the sport after his defeat to Nurmagomedov in 2020 a dad, one of the richest athletes on the planet, and a respectful admirer of his foes. He played the part of fan and opponent against Donald Cerrone at UFC 246. Then honorable nemesis and philanthropist at UFC 257 for his rematch with Poirier. It almost seemed like the big letdowns to Mayweather and Nurmagomedov changed and matured him. When he lost again in January, it put a nail in the coffin of the dominant force fans once knew.
"Fucking weak" Poirier calls McGregor's thrash talk about his wife.
He's right.
— Seán Sheehan (@SeanSheehanBA) July 9, 2021
His grand proclamations and attempts to recapture “Notorious”-classic during fight week and in last night’s presser have come across forced. The fighter we knew is successful, wealthy, and doesn’t have the same burning desire to prove something to the world. The question is, can McGregor meld the old and the new in him to form a hybrid that gets him a W inside the T-Mobile Arena? I for one am curious to find out.
McGregor and Poirier won’t go more than three rounds
A McGregor fight has gone to a decision only twice in the last eight years. That includes his 2017 boxing bout against Mayweather. Having Octagon announcer Bruce Buffer read the judge’s scorecards is just not how fights with the Irishman end. More times than not he either puts foes to sleep or more recently, sees his night end early in an emphatic fashion.
Not to be outdone, a Poirier fight has only gone to the scorecards twice in his last eight. And in those two that went the distance–against Max Holloway at UFC 236 and Dan Hooker 13 months ago–fans saw “fight of the year” candidate scraps.
Add to those facts that McGregor and Poirier’s first two fights lasted less than three rounds, and it just seems like it is not in the DNA of this rivalry to see have the judges decide who leaves this trilogy with bragging rights. Trust me, this one is not getting into the “championship rounds.”
A victorious Stephen Thompson will line step Leon Edwards
It just feels like the UFC isn’t dying to give Leon Edwards a shot at Kamaru Usman, doesn’t it? Nine straight wins and victories over stars and ranked talents like Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque, and Rafael dos Anjos has not changed the narrative from the UFC matchmaking offices. No one is saying that Edwards is the next best option if a rematch between Usman and Colby Covington can’t get finalized. Even after dominating White’s favorite Diaz brother for 24 and half minutes in their fight last month.
Enter the “Wonderboy.” Even though he has won three of his last five and hasn’t beaten a top-five welterweight in years, Stephen Thompson has hung around the top of the rankings for the last four years. A win over a second-ranked Gilbert Burns at UFC 264 would be three straight and check off that lacking top-five victory. And at 38, he has the storyline of an aged veteran rising back to the top to offer the champion an opponent he has yet to face.
Considering the history, it feels like the UFC would be all for a wonderful showing from “Wonderboy” to save them from thoughts of Usman versus Edwards II.
