Will MayPac effect UFC PPV buys?
Dave Meltzer for MMAFighting asks “Will those who paid $100 on May 2, be as willing to spend another $60 on a show three weeks later?”
Mayweather vs. Pacquiao did extraordinary numbers on PPV. Selling 400,000 PPVs at $50 is pretty great. MayPac did 4,400,000 at $100 each.
Dave Meltzer analyzes whether those sales will hurt the next several UFC PPVs.
Because there has been nothing like that, ever, there is no precedent to predict its seismic after-effects. In 2013, when Mayweather fought Canelo Alvarez in September, a show that did 2.25 million buys, it led to UFC shows from September through November take a hit, all performing well under expectations given the main events. It wasn’t until late December, and a double headliner with Anderson Silva vs. Weidman and Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate, that the 2013 Mayweather aftershocks were no longer apparent.
The reality is that boxing and MMA draw largely different audiences. Boxing skews much older, and more ethnic. However, the May 2 fight was a cultural event far more than a big boxing match. I’d suggest it is probable that the vast majority of MMA pay-per-view buyers, even the ones who rarely watch boxing, would have gone out of their way to see it. Will those who paid $100 on May 2, be as willing to spend another $60 on a show three weeks later? Perhaps the two title matches are strong enough that the answer is yes. But a far less popular fight at a lower price point had three months worth of affect the last time.
This year has been far more successful than 2014 was, due to bigger fights and fewer injuries.
Barring injuries, the next four shows should do reasonably well. UFC 187 and 189 should top 500,000 buys, perhaps by a good margin. The success of UFC 184 would indicate UFC 190 has a chance to as well.
Yet, the aftermath of the Mayweather fight makes all this uncharted water.