UFC has a lot riding on MayMac

UFC president Dana White says he is nervous heading into MayMac on Saturday.

I haven’t been this nervous for a fight, probably ever, said White recently to reporters, as transcribed byAdam Santarossa for Australia’s News.com.au
Because I want Conor to knock him out. Normally when we go into these fights, everyone is in the UFC. Our guy vs. our guy, whoever wins, wins. This is obviously huge and a lot at stake here on both sides.

When the Patriots won the Superbowl last year I wore a Patriots shirt every day for a week. So I’m wearing a Conor shirt every day this week. I’m not superstitious or anything, but f*** it why not.

The thing is, it might be far better for White and the UFC is McGregor loses.

If McGregor wins, every boxer on the planet will want to face him next. And he’s making around $100 million to box Mayweather on Saturday, something he said will quadruple his net worth. He makes something over $10 million to fight in the UFC. So if he wins, why would he fight in the Octagon next?

I’d like to see him come back and defend his title in the UFC after this instead of other boxing opportunities, said White. The kid is special and obviously, if he knocks out Floyd Mayweather, holy s*** – who know’s what the f*** he will do next. The sky is the limit, literally, the sky is the limit.

If McGregor loses a close one, a rematch with Mayweather is inevitable, and some wise voices say that Mayweather will orchestrate just that. If McGregor gets crushed Saturday, he will definitely return to the UFC, but he has said he will not do so without equity.

I got a feeling we’re going to have that conversation, and I don’t mind it. I welcome it, I think he deserves it, said White. It has never been done but anything is possible. Listen, there’s a lot of people that feel they’re worth something, saying they’re worth this and worth that. We know what this guy is worth.

So McGregor returns and gets a chunk of the company. Among the many leverage points McGregor possesses is that the UFC is out of proven PPV draws, and although the league has widely diversified its revenue streams, PPV is still massive to a bottom line that has to pay off a $4 billion investment. Little is left of proven draws:
•Jon Jones may be out for four years with his second apparent anti-doping violation.
•Ronda Rousey is done fighting, and marginal PPV competitor WWE may well be in her future;
•Brock Lesnar is suspended for an anti-doping violation, and his suspension is tolling, and the obvious return superfight vs. Jon Jones is likely off the table;
•Nate Diaz did insane numbers vs. Conor McGregor, twice, but doesn’t appear interested in returning for anyone but Conor McGregor again;
•Anderson Silva is old;
•Chuck Liddell is really old, and may be making a return, for Bellator, after the new UFC owners released him from a no-show job that White arranged so The Iceman would retire without CTE; and
•Georges St-Pierre, 36, is the sole demonstrable PPV monster, and he has not fought since 2013; he returns in a title fight vs. middleweight champ Michael Bisping on November 4.

It’s been said over and again that the UFC had peaked, and that’s always been wrong. The league has always turned out new stars. It’s just difficult to see who it is, exactly.

Paige VanZant looked like a star, but she’s lost two of the last three and hasn’t fought for a title. Cody Garbrandt looked like he had that special It Factor, so the league put him front and center on TUF, where he underwhelmed; and he hasn’t fought this year at all due to injuries. Cain Velasquez was the baddest man on the planet, a potential breakthrough star to the huge Latino fight community; but he gets injured on a near constant basis. Cris Cyborg could be a star, but they can’t even find her a fair fight.

So the UFC is down to a single proven PPV star. And if he wins Saturday, they may be down to none.