Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya
Here we go again… again, again. It feels like this fight went down yesterday. In fact, it was November, which is a very quick turnaround for a guy who was TKO’d. Has he had enough time to make adjustments and build back his confidence? Can anyone right the ship in just four months, when you have to get over the hump of losing to one guy three damn times in martial arts competition?
One way to look at that question is to consider the number of UFC champions who lost their belt and won it back in immediate rematches. As of January 2022, Deiveson Figueiredo was the first guy in over 17 years to do it. Since then, two fighters have attempted it, and only one was successful: Amanda Nunes. All told that’s only three successful redemptions in 12 tries. History doesn’t exactly favor Israel Adesanya (23-2 MMA, 12-2 UFC) and his ambition, but he could be one of those generational greats who defies the odds and rises above. After all, he is the second-greatest middleweight we have seen in the UFC.
As far as his gameplan in this rematch, it’s very tempting to overanalyze recent footage of Adesanya grappling, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. He’s never been a grappler, and in one training camp, he’s not going to suddenly become one, but maybe he doesn’t need to be. Maybe his strategy is to use the takedown as a feint to keep Alex Pereira (7-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC) guessing. We saw this in the third round of their last fight. We’ve seen this with “The Machine” Merab Dvalishvili.
Using flash takedown attempts to keep your opponent off balance sounds fun on paper, but that’s not Adesanya’s style when he wins. I would caution against most fighters moving away from what they’re great at, especially before what might be the fight of their life. It’s not like he got shut out by Pereira in their last fight. He almost finished him at the end of the first round. If we want to get really speculative, we might infer that a spent gas tank was part of the reason for his downfall. If he spent less time grappling in that third round, he might’ve had more stamina to take those shots from Pereira in the fifth round. To top it off, he followed up that exhausting third round with a very productive fourth (his second best round for “significant” head strikes landed). Both of these guys are brilliant kickboxers, but they’re certainly not grapplers, and maybe they should stick to what they know.
Hardcore History: Adesanya was born in Lagos, Nigeria. Around the age of 9, he attended an after-school taekwondo club, but that was short-lived as his parents relocated him and his four siblings to the Republic of Ghana in 1999. Finding Ghana not suitable for the education they desired for their children, his parents moved them to Rotura, a bay-side city on the north island of New Zealand. That is where Adesanya attended an all-boys high school and dove deep into a passion for anime and the science of computer design. Unfortunately, some people in this life can and will try to steal your joy. After being bullied in school, Israel became interested in self-defense and at 18 started kickboxing. Two years later, he went pro and from there amassed a 6-0 record, right before suffering his first and second loss, both by decision.
His opponent, Pereira, grew up in a harsh neighborhood in Sao Paulo, Brazil with his six siblings. He dropped out of school early and around 12 started working at an auto repair shop. After years of grueling work, that life led him to extreme alcoholism and an impulse to fight. All his coworkers would drink, and Alex stated that at one point it got so scary, he would drink as much as a liter of rum and a few beers every day. That would last almost a decade before he entered his first kickboxing gym. For almost four years thereafter he would continue to drink before he finally got sober in 2013. That same year he started kickboxing, winning his first four fights. He had his last kickboxing fight in 2021, four years after retiring Adesanya from the sport with a third-round knockout.
Dave’s Pick: Adesanya is -140. Sometimes, in fights like this, I honestly have no clue why the favorite is “the favorite.” Adesanya has lost three in a row to Pereira – two by KO and one by unanimous decision – yet we’re still getting plus money on Pereira. Why? Is it because Adesanya is really focused this time? Is it because he’s “figured” Pereira out in film study (this time)? Whatever the reason for Adesanya being the -140 favorite, I can’t understand it, and ultimately I don’t agree with it. You’ve heard me say time and time again that if you believe that a fight is a coin flip, take the plus money. Well, I do think that this fight is a coin flip. In fact, the only thing that should be flipped in this fight should be the odds. I like Pereira at plus money.
2. Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
“Three piece and a soda.” This phrase might be the only thing keeping Jorge Masvidal (35-16 MMA, 12-9 UFC) relevant at this stage of his career, age 38. It may even get him a title shot. First, he must confront the buzzsaw that is Gilbert Burns (21-5 MMA, 14-5 UFC). If by some miracle he does get through Burns, you already know Leon Edwards would be calling for that first title defense again Masvidal. The cold, hard reality is that you couldn’t deny him. Beating Burna would be a huge feather in his cap seeing as “Durinho” is ranked fouth in the welterweight division. The only guys ahead of him are Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev, the former who just lost to Edwards, and the latter who is possibly being forced up to middleweight.
Disclaimer: In good conscience, we can pay no mind to the prospect of a Colby Covington title shot. He hasn’t beaten someone coming off a win since 2018, and that was Rafael dos Anjos, who isn’t in the current top 10.
As for “Durinho” Burns, in his last 10 fights, he has only lost to Usman and Chimaev. Usman is fresh off his second loss to the current champion, and Chimaev is not looking to rematch Burns anytime soon. So where does that leave Burns with a win here? Two guys who desperately want a title shot and have never faced Burns are Belal Muhammad and Covington. Muhammad has done damn near everything to earn the shot, but for some insane reason isn’t being considered for it. A fight between him and Burns would defiantly produce a worthy and relevant title contender. That fight would likely be fireworks, seeing as both guys are grapplers which historically results in a fun striking match. As for Covington, if he beat Burns, then his third title shot would be way more palatable, but if Burns beat him, that would be three in a row and a solid case for a second title shot. In a recent interview with MMA Junkie, Burns reconfirmed his interest in that fight: “I hope, because I’ve been calling this guy out for forever.” He believes a second-round finish over Masvidal could “steal the next title shot.”
Hardcore History: Burns grew up in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with his parents and two brothers. When he was 12, his dad traded automotive work for jiu-jitsu lessons for his boys. Gilbert did not waste the gift, turning his experience into a gold medal by defeating Kron Gracie in the finals of the 2011 World Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Championships. Later that year, under the tutelage of Vitor Belfort, he took his first amateur MMA fight and won. He turned pro in 2012 and joined the UFC two years later, winning his next three fights, all in the lightweight division. It wasn’t until 2019 that Burns would make the move up to welterweight, winning his next four fights and earning a title shot against Usman. He currently trains under Henri Hooft at Kill Cliff FC in Florida.
Masvidal is the ultimate journeyman. He started his career in 2003 and burst onto the elite stage in 2007 when he head-kick KO’d MMA legend Yves Edwards while competing for the promotion BodogFIGHT. He has fought all over the world, spending the vast majority of his career under three major promotions; Strikeforce, Bellator, and the UFC. Like Burns, he has fluctuated between the lightweight and welterweight divisions. He found his stride at welterweight when he knocked out kickboxing hype machine and former UFC fighter Darren Till. From Miami backyard brawls to the world’s biggest stage, Jorge has earned the respect of his peers, fighting anyone and everyone. He is the ultimate journeyman and the ultimate warrior. He currently trains with Dustin Poirier and other elite veterans under head coach Mike Brown at American Top Team in Coconut Creek, Florida.
Dave’s Pick: Burns (-430) is the largest favorite on the card. On paper, it looks like he may have all the tools necessary to handily come out victorious, especially if this fight were to hit the ground early. But there are several intangibles at play here that will give you second thoughts about quickly dismissing Masvidal completely. Masvidal’s back is against the wall, no doubt. The stakes are extremely high, as one loss may send him into retirement, and one win may give him a title shot. Masvidal ‘s experience will be the difference maker. He has fought/sparred the best grapplers in the world for some time now, and he’s going to have to rely on his good takedown defense (74 percent) along with his in-cage intelligence to get this fight into deeper waters. Burns’ takedown accuracy of 34 percent, combined with six of his last 10 fights going to decision, tells me that this fight has a really good chance of going long. Whenever I think of Burns, it’s always synonymous with Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but in taking a look at his last 14 fights, only two have ended in a Burns submission victory. In fact, before submitting Neil Magny in his last time out, Burns hasn’t had a submission since April 27, 2019.
I like the OVER 2.5 rounds at +110
Rob Font vs. Adrian Yanez
Both of these guys are stellar boxers. Adrian Yanez (16-3 MMA, 5-0 UFC) is on a hot streak and looking to make Rob Font (19-6 MMA, 9-5 UFC) his 10th consecutive victim, while Font is on thin ice as he’s turning 36 this year and staring down the barrel of his third loss in a row. His last two losses were to Jose Aldo and Marlon “Chito” Vera, so nothing to be ashamed of. It’s a testament to the number of buzzsaw strikers in this division. Font does have four submission wins on his record, and in a recent interview with MMA News claimed, “I want to get a submission under my belt. I haven’t gotten one in a while, I want to club and sub this guy.” Unfortunately for him, Yanez boasts a remarkable 100 percent takedown defense. None of his past opponents have had such success. With only three rounds to work, it might not be in his best interest to suddenly become a heavy grappler. Font might want to rely on his veteran experience to bait Yanez into unfavorable exchanges. That’s easier said than done, as Yanez has done well to mix up his approach in his last few fights, going downstairs and upstairs between leg kicks and head strikes.
The Davey Grant fight did show us a possible path to victory, as Grant landed 40 “significant” body strikes and one judge awarded him a 30-27 card over Yanez. Font does well in that regard, having out-landed his last three opponents in “significant” body strikes. He’s combined for 109 body shots compared to their 49. The harsh reality is that he didn’t have the pop to slow down his opponents with head strikes once he got the body shots going. His last finish came against Marlon Moraes and he only threw two body strikes in that fight as it didn’t go past the first round. This will be an incredible test to see if Font still has what it takes to compete with the elite bantamweights. Looking forward, Yanez appears to be the close favorite in this matchup. A solid win here could eventually set him up to face the winner of Ricky Simon vs. Song Yadong, the timing would be perfect, as they are set to face off later this month. There’s no good reason to overlook Font in this fight, but similar to this fight, Yanez vs. either of those two men has “Fight of the Night” written all over it.
Hardcore History: Not your typical pizza delivery guy,Font stumbled upon a few guys training in their Tampa Bay garage and gladly accepted a few pointers on the basics of jiu-jitsu. He had no idea what this would lead to or that a career in MMA was even possible, but here we are. According to a 2014 interview with MMA Junkie just days before his second-to-last regional fight, Font recalls taking that experience into his first MMA gym, and the rest is history. Soon enough, he was 10-1 with his UFC debut set against the elusive veteran George Roop in an under-the-radar prelim fight supporting “UFC 175: Weidman vs. Machida.” Font scored a thunderous first-round KO and would go on to finish three of his next four opponents. He currently trains with Calvin Kattar and the team at New England Cartel under head coach Tyson Chartier.
Yanez has been through some serious crap. After losing his father in 2016 and the permanent scar that leaves, he also lost his head coach Saul Soliz just two years ago. Known as the “Godfather of Texas MMA,” Soliz lost a battle with COVID-19, he was only 55 years old. Despite losing his two most important role models, Yanez continues to do his best to stay positive and train his best. Neither of them got to meet his son, but he uses their love and guidance to help guide his new path in fatherhood. Despite the sting of losing his trainer of 10 years, Yanez still trains with Metro Fight Club and has won both his fights since the unfortunate passing. Yanez might be the best recent example of discipline and perseverance in this vicious sport. Our hearts go out to him and his family after their tragic loss.
Dave’s Pick: Although Raul Rosas Jr. may be getting a lot of shine right now, Yanez (-190) is the battle-tested, up-and-coming prospect that most of the true “heads” are looking forward to watching the most. Yanez is good. So slick. I really believe that Yanez may be in title contention by the end of the year, and it will be well deserved. Yanez’s hands are as sharp as they come. Big, accurate hooks, devastating body shots, and wonderful head-and-foot movement – Yanez is going to be a bigtime problem for Font. One of the things that I love about Yanez’s style is how economical he is. He doesn’t waste any motion, yet he’s constantly moving out of range and circling the cage. Yanez has knocked out five of his last six opponents, and I’m afraid that Font will have the same fate. I love Yanez here at -190.
Dave Manley is the creator and CEO of MMA Bobbleheads, a California-based company making handmade, high-quality, high-artistry bobbleheads of your favorite MMA personalities. A 25-plus year fan of MMA, Manley saw a need for high-end, handcrafted memorabilia for fans and decided to create the best bobbleheads that have ever been made for any sport. Learn more on Twitter and Instagram.
