With the changing of the tide, Francis Ngannou committed to his uncertain future. Now out of sight, only to leave a hole in our hearts. You may be in line with his reasoning or you may completely disagree, regardless, you’re very curious to see if Jon Jones (26-1 MMA, 20-1 UFC) can take his place. With a win over Ciryl Gane (11-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC), we may forget all about the departed champion of the world. With a loss, we may be left to pick up the pieces.

1. Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane

OK, so maybe that opening statement was a little melodramatic, but can you blame me? Jones vs. Ngannou would have been pure insanity. Instead, we get this puzzling chess match. The former light heavyweight champ and polling favorite to retain GOAT status returns from an excruciatingly long three-year hiatus, his dance partner to be? Gane, the tactical French powerhouse, fresh off a fun little war with Tai Tuivasa where we saw him bludgeon the Aussie en route to a third-round KO. Before that, Gane was quite possibly one ill-advised heel hook attempt away from taking the heavyweight strap. Alas, we saw Ngannou accomplish the unexpected. On one functioning knee, he threw Gane to the mat and used a heavy top game to retain his title. 

Upon his departure from the organization, we’re left with two questions for Gane: 1. Is he capable of making another huge rookie mistake in his next title opportunity? 2. How does he look against another elite fighter who is actually known for their grappling? We’ll most likely get the answer to that second question on Saturday night. If Jon can return to peak form when we saw him trip takedown his opponents and bury them in the canvas with skydiving elbows (see Jones vs. Brandon Vera circa 2010). Gane could be in for a hell of a beating. I get the shakes just thinking about the level of destruction he used to employ.

The cold, hard truth is that we haven’t seen any version of that Jones since 2018. Not because he can’t be that guy anymore, but quite candidly we have no idea what to expect on Saturday. All we have for reference is his last three performances, all listless decisions, all against fighters we respect but expected him to beat. Gane is still very much in his prime, and this time we can’t say definitively what to expect. The last two elite fighters to move up in weight and challenge for the title came out on the losing end (albeit in very close fights). The staggering difference here is the weight gain. When Jones steps into the octagon on Saturday, he’ll be standing across from a 247-pound man (Gane’s official weight in his last three fights). We can safely assume if Jones weighed 220 pounds on light heavyweight fight day, then he is at least going up 27 pounds in weight.

This is all a big guessing game, but I feel it’s worth noting. Also, the last time a UFC light heavyweight champion moved up to challenge for the heavyweight belt was in 2009, that was Randy Couture, who was born in 1963. Maybe that’s irrelevant or maybe there’s a reason why no one else has dared to make that jump. On the flip side, Gane has looked incredible on the feet, elusive like a middleweight, and as heavy-handed as his heavyweight peers. Also worth considering is the reach. In the past, Jones has used his reach (84.5 inches) very well and at times relied heavily on it to beat guys, but Gane has a longer reach than all his past opponents, at 81 inches. Just to reiterate though, we can’t possibly say what to expect coming off Jones’ extended hiatus. Pray for fireworks, but expect a war.

Hardcore History: Jones wrestled in high school in his home state of New York. He was a junior college champion in Iowa and pursued further education for a degree in criminal justice. Not without strife, he lost his sister before her 18th birthday. Ultimately he dropped out of college to pursue MMA in 2008, and maybe that is where the wheels came off. The guy has definitely been through it, but he has also brought it on himself. He’s done damn near everything outside the octagon to hinder his success in the octagon. If you’re a new MMA fan, just google ‘Jon Jones arrest history’ and watch as the floodgates open. It poses the question, “just how many times has the guy messed up?” With education centered around mental health gaining more and more traction in the U.S., there is much to consider with Jones’ tribulations. Still, if you’re a long-time fan of the sport, you’re most likely exhausted by his antics. In 2011, he became the youngest fighter to win a UFC belt at 23, by 2013 he was the first fighter to be sponsored by Nike and Gatorade, and by 2014 he lost it all. His most notable loss may be in 2017 when he lost his mom before her 56th birthday. That is the story of Jon Jones. Win, lose, win, lose. And still, we can safely say he is one of the greatest MMA fighters of all time. With an impressive win here, he could be cemented in the top three, assuming he doesn’t commit another hit-and-run or head-butt another police car.

Gane has a much shorter story in MMA. He trains under Nganou’s former coach at MMA Factory in France. He started muay Thai around 2015, and in 2018 made his professional debut in MMA, going on a 10-fight win streak before running into Ngannou. It was January of last year, and he quickly made it to the upper echelon of his division, set to take on the scariest man alive. For the most part, he made a very respectable account of himself, if not for sitting back on a reckless leg lock in a pivotal fifth round he was probably winning. Throw that out, and he might’ve been the current UFC heavyweight champion. Instead, this is a vacant title fight, and Gane has said he doesn’t regret taking that risk. As risky as that level of confidence is, what’s riskier is his approach to this next fight. When asked what’s been done to rectify his grappling inequality, MMA Factory head coach Fernand Lopez commented “we haven’t focused on the grappling as much as we’ve focused on Ciryl’s striking and what he’s good at. When Jon gets punched in the face, we’ll see if he sticks to the gameplan, and if he does go for a takedown, he’s opening himself up to danger.” This rough translation (to say the least) was taken from a February 21 interview with MMA Junkie’s Farah Hannoun. Maybe Lopez didn’t want to tell us too much about Gane’s pre-fight preparations. Or … maybe both these men are out of their minds – but maybe that’s what makes them so brilliant in cagefighting.

Dave’s Pick: The line on this match actually opened as Jon Jones as the UNDERDOG, but quickly moved to where it stands now. Jones is the -170 favorite with the total at 4.5 rounds, the over at -150. So much to be said on the most probable path to victory on both sides. With Gane, there’s just as many questions with his method of victory as there is with how Jones will perform as a much heavier human. The biggest question that I’m most curious about is the limiting ability that Gane will have with his leg strikes. If Jones were to catch one, that’s it. Gane’s on his back, or in a scramble, or clinched up. All places Gane can’t afford to be. In fact, if Gane were to get his leg caught into the arms of Jones, we very well may see Jones just have his way with the the following sequence of events, which will surely lead to the mat. It is there where we will then see the biggest disparity of skill. So does Gane abandon the kicks? Not a chance. It’s what he does. He’s a kickboxer. He’s a phenomenal kickboxer at that. But a phenomenal kickboxer fighting the best to ever do it (with a wrestling base) in an MMA fight is not going to cut it. Look for a heavy serving of Jones power doubles and trips. The ground is where Jones will win this fight. He will be just simply too much for Gane to handle. Jones is just too good in a place where Gane isn’t good at all.

Jon Jones to win. Jon Jones/Cyril Gane UNDER 4.5 rounds.

2. Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso

Alexa Grasso (15-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) is a very tough opponent, maybe even too tough for her own good. She strives on the feet, showcasing crisp boxing and great footwork. Her priority will be to keep this fight on the feet. The crux is Valentina Shevchenko (23-3 MMA, 12-2 UFC) is a spectacular counter striker and will chew you up if you give her too many looks. On top of that, she has a very decent ground game, having submitted former bantamweight champion Julianna Peña with an armbar from the bottom, and that was in a fight where many thought Peña would have the grappling advantage. If we choose to live in a world where Grasso gets her wish and this fight stays on the feet, it will by no means be a walk in the park. Both women need to pack a lunch, as this fight could be a very grueling striking affair. As with the Gane fight, we will also wonder here, what does Grasso do if she gets taken down? And if she has done anything to prepare for that scenario, will it be enough? To that, I would safely say no, not a chance in hell.

Shevchenko’s nine-fight win streak is by design, she’s a fighter’s fighter. Extremely dedicated and athletic from the word go. Despite incredibly close losses to bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes, she manages to stay in the conversation for best female fighter of all time. Luck isn’t a factor in that equation, she’s a destroyer. Grasso has very decent takedown defense, but to say that she is about to face her toughest challenge to date is the understatement of the century. Many analysts have said that a powerful grappler with a heavy top game will be the most interesting challenge for Shevchenko. Grasso is great, but she is not that. She will have to stay light on her feet, constantly keep Valentina guessing, and pump the jab in her face. She needs to frustrate her and convince her to brawl. Yeah, good luck with that. Much easier said than done.

Hardcore History: Shevchenko was born in Frunze, Kirghizia to Russian/Ukrainian parents. Her mother is the Kyrgyzstan Muay Thai Association president, and her father served in the Soviet Navy during the Cold War. When you come from such aggressive roots, it’s no mistake that you start training in martial arts at 5 years old. She and her older sister Antonina started training under their head coach Pavel Fedotov around the age of 12. They owe much of their success to keeping their team small and committed. With that comes flexibility. Home base is in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, but they don’t really have a “set location” for their training camps. They typically land wherever Pavel lands. Leading up to her last fight they trained at Tiger Muay Thai in Phuket, Thailand. For this fight, she spent time at Paraesta Matsudo in Tokyo, Japan with former Rizin atomweight champion Kanna Asakura. 

The benefits of training anywhere you desire include but aren’t limited to getting many different looks and constantly adding tools to your tool belt. The benefits of training with a tight nit team aren’t exactly new to the MMA scene, with elite fighters like Conor McGregor and Alexander Volkanovski reaching great heights in this environment. Before Shevchenko’s last fight, New England Cartel head coach Tyson Chartier commented, “in my opinion, how they train, that’s how we train, and that’s how you should train. You should have a small team, with a few fighters, and you travel around and get the best training.”

Grasso might be a giant underdog, but she does have history and momentum on her side. She’s currently riding a four-fight win streak, including a huge win over division standout Maycee Barber and a submission win over veteran Joanne Wood. Perhaps the leading storyline is her background. Grasso trains with UFC veteran Irene Aldana and the crew at Lobo Gym MMA in her hometown of Guadalajara, Mexico. Her desire to compete was sparked by watching her uncle, the current Lobo Gym head coach, train and teach. This experience combined with her father showing her boxing techniques led her to martial arts competition. All this to say, the majority of the wind in her sails may come from the recent success of Mexican martial artists. After Brandon Moreno took back his flyweight title in January and Yair Rodriguez snagged the featherweight interim belt last month, she could be the third Mexican champion in just three short months. Most importantly, she would be the first ever Mexican-born female champion. The stakes are high in this one, and neither fighter is known to shy away from a complex challenge. We may see the best Grasso we’ve ever seen, but we may also see Shevchenko do Shevchenko, and that is just so difficult to handle.

Dave’s Pick: The line on this one is Valentina -800 with the total at 4.5 with the under as the -140 favorite. Is it me, or are we seeing a bit of an “Angry” Valentina since her last fight against Talia Santos. I sense some resentment coming from Valentina in her recent interviews, and I don’t think that she’s taking kindly to the fact that people are saying that she may have lost a step. A pissed off Valentina could be a very, very dangerous Valentina, and the sharps in Vegas know this. Hence the line creeping up from -600 to -800 during fight week. Obviously, I’m not going to lay 8 to win 1, so let’s take a look at the total. 

Valentina has gone UNDER 4.5 rounds in five of her last nine matches. She’s not a stranger to engaging right away. One of the stats that stick out to me right away is the Strikes absorbed per minute average. Valentina has a SAPM average of 1.9 while Grasso sits at at 4.02 – DOUBLE the amount of damage taken via strikes. When you take a look at the last few opponents of Grasso that help make up that statistic, it’s even more glaring. Grasso hands down deserves this title shot, but she may be in over head in skillset. I don’t think that she’ll be able to last 22.5 minutes with the woman’s GOAT. Even with all the toughness that Mexican fighters bring to the table, Grasso won’t be able to withstand all the weapons that Shevchenko will have in her arsenal. Valentina will remind the world why she’s the best female MMA fighter and hits us with a Peruvian dance show before round 4. I’m taking Shevchenko UNDER 4.5 rounds. Also, laying some dough on Shevchenko to win within the distance at -140.

Good luck!

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Dave Manley is the creator and CEO of MMA Bobbleheads, a California-based company making handmade, high-quality, high-artistry bobbleheads of your favorite MMA personalities. A 25-plus year fan of MMA, Manley saw a need for high-end, handcrafted memorabilia for fans and decided to create the best bobbleheads that have ever been made for any sport. Learn more on Twitter and Instagram.