UFC 116 PPV buys estimated at 1.15 to 1.25 million

This fight, among the UFC core audience, was not as big as the Rashad Evans vs. Quinton Jackson fight. The Countdown show didn’t do as close to as good ratings. The weigh-in crowd was significantly down and nowhere near as enthusiastic, even for the main event, as for most of the big shows. Tickets didn’t move as quickly as Evans-Jackson (although interest in that fight was far above usual levels). At the end, the MGM Grand Garden Arena was packed for both events, but this show had no closed-circuit on the strip. Between the holiday weekend and some issues with getting the right count, live gate numbers were not available at press time other than the gate was believed to be in excess of $4 million and the number in the building was around 14,000.

The PPV numbers are even more interesting. Because of the holiday, numbers are slower coming in than usual, but we’re told it will be a good two weeks before any kind of a solid narrowed down estimate will be available because the market-by-market variation was so strong. There were markets, such as on the West Coast in traditionally strong UFC cities but not traditionally strong pro wrestling cities, where the show did not do as well as Evans vs. Jackson. However, in some strong traditional pro wrestling markets, the show did not only beat Evans vs. Jackson, but UFC 100, every Mike Tyson fight, and every PPV in history with the exception of De La Hoya vs. Mayweather. It’s those variations that, unless more data is in, make any estimate at this point difficult from a PPV standpoint. Based on the weak markets, which weren’t really all that weak, if that were to hold up in most of the country, it could do 850,000, but realistically, nobody expects less than 1 million buys. Based on the good markets, it would look to beat UFC 100’s record, but I would be very surprised to see it come close to that number. Another aspect is late buys. While there is zero evidence to back this up, the general belief because of how good the show was, and with all the ESPN coverage after the fact, is that the show was going to do the all-time record for late buys.

Based on trending patterns, which also show some wide variations instead of consistencies, the number would look to be 1.15 million to 1.25 million. Those are usually very good predictors of buys, but they are not numbers coming from direct buys. But based on trending levels, the show looks good for finishing in the No. 2 spot on the all-time UFC list. It would be a big surprise to finish lower than No. 4.

And the feedback from bars also shows the same inconsistencies. There were places where the crowd was considerably smaller than Evans vs. Jackson, and others where the crowds were considerably bigger. It was not like Evans vs. Jackson which from a bar standpoint was almost a consistent No. 2 behind UFC 100, and in some places equal to UFC 100.

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