The case for Stipe Miocic #AndStill

The UFC needs a new star, badly, and Saturday night one will rise, if Francis Ngannou defeats UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic in the main event of UFC 220. People believe things they want; the odds are heavily in Ngannou’s favor.

Bill Mahoney from South Shore SportFighting in Norwell, Massachusetts has one of the finest – if unheralded – minds in the sport. If I wanted to know who was going to win a fight, the first person in the sport I would ask is Bill. In a recent message on his social network, Mahoney laid out the case for #AndStill.

Some of you have done well betting on my opinion. I must hereby recommend you not do so. Were I always right I’d be rich, not poor. Think about it.

Francis is seen as a killer because he KO’d weak chin ‘Reem and Andre. Stipe ALSO KO’d them both in 1.

What’s Francis’s next best career highlight? KO of who Anthony Hamilton, while Stipe smashed guys like Werdum and Junior.

I disagree with the popular logic of if there’s a fast KO Francis wins. If there’s a fast KO or could go either way. They BOTH GOT FOUR 1st round finishes in a row.

Most fighters use moronic strategies because many coaches are too dense, or too liking the idea of not getting fired to be honest with their fighters. Often I’ll be heard saying, you won’t be able to get him down shooting, his hips are too good or your punches won’t hurt him If u trade you’ll lose.

Many of my ex-fighters are still kinda bitter about me because of my brutal honesty. Was never personal guys.

So it’s fair to say, Stipe will probably strike so it’s 50/50. At least it would be if you didn’t see Stipe Vs Hunt. Watch then tell me.

And study those ground punches, like Fedor, Lauzon, I’ve seen Diego do it great in ages past. No ones gonna survive under Stipe for too long with much cardio left. Ngannou may last a round or two, but if he lets Stipe secure top then stops to catch his breath rather than get up immediately, then the fight’s effectively over at that point even if it takes longer. Obviously, Francis is more mobile than Hunt so it would be tougher.

Two other points…

#1. Watch Francis’s fights in France. He’s athletic but not massive and athletic. He put on lots of muscle as an adult before USADA got hold of him. Lots. Not easy to oxygenate that kinda muscle late in a fight.

#2. As a general rule bet against the killing machine that’s running over everyone when he steps up two levels. Like Belfort/Randy, BJ/Jens, etc, etc.

And when guys KO everyone and get huge hype like Sokoudjou, Houston Alexander, and Brandon Vera (history lesson ended) when it gets widely known that if they hit you you stay hit… it suddenly gets very hard for them to hit people.

Another general rule … straighter punches beat more looping shots. Frazier beat Ali once so not always. But you make money betting on straighter puncher over time. Think Lennox Lewis vs. Tyson or Morrison. Punches just get there faster and when the punches go at the same time the properly thrown straight punch that has the chin tucked under the deltoid on delivery allows some protection vs. the hook. But as you throw a hook… if u eat a straight shot (or fellow hook or uppercut) as you throw it’s often night night. You’re just not in as good a position as you throw. That’s to say nothing of the range difference.

This may be Stipe’s toughest test and if it was 2-1 odds on Stipe I wouldn’t touch it. But at even I would.

If Francis wins it won’t be a lucky punch. Stipe is a lifelong boxer with excellent defensive skill. Stipe keeps hands up and circles after combos and all that. But mostly Stipe knows he’s 245 and he just has to land. So he doesn’t load up on everything as many do. So he doesn’t plant his feet and lock in to throw turning his hip way over and leaving him unprotected for longer. Stipe knows just a clean shot here and there keeps him safe and eventually they won’t see one coming and it’ll leave the guy in a bad way for him to then finish.

If Francis knocks him out then he’s the best and I can’t see any threat to him on the horizon. Whoever wins this will be champ for awhile IMO.