The case for Saturday being the G.U.O.A.T.
Dave Meltzer: “Holm’s win will go down as not just the biggest upset in UFC history, but probably as its most memorable fight in its 22-year history.”
The Greatest Upset of All Time in the UFC to date is widely considered to be Matt Serra over GSP. St-Pierre was a +700 favorite. T.J. Dillashaw faced even longer odds the first time vs. Renan Barao. Holly Holm came down to around +1000 or less vs. Ronda Rousey by fight time. By contrast, Buster Douglas was a 42-to-1 underdog when he knocked out Mike Tyson ?in 1990.
In a well reasoned essay, the ever excellent Dave Meltzer argues coherently that Holm over Rousey was the biggest upset in UFC history.
Holm’s win will go down as not just the biggest upset in UFC history, but probably as its most memorable fight in its 22-year history. Rousey had become the biggest celebrity ever created by UFC. She was the first UFC fighter to not just transcend the sport, but to transcend sports. She was a symbolic generational hero for many women, and parlayed UFC to major movie roles and endorsements that no other fighter has ever been able to attain.
On a night with college football, the title change, for the first time ever, was covered as the biggest sports story of the night, and will likely be nominated as one of the biggest sports upsets of the year if not, the generation.
The irony is that days before the fight, the odds on Rousey winning had risen to 22-to-1, the most one-sided for a title fight in UFC history. But after weigh-ins, when Rousey and Holm nearly got into it, there was a flood of late betting on the challenger, although the odds never fell below 10-to-1 for Rousey (Holm’s winning by the end paid as low at +750 because of all the late betting) in most Las Vegas locations.
In the modern UFC, the two biggest upsets were the April 7, 2007, UFC welterweight title win by Matt Serra over Georges St-Pierre, and the May 24, 2014, bantamweight title win by T.J. Dillashaw over Renan Barao. Both had odds of 8-to-1 in favor of the defending champion.
With St-Pierre vs. Serra, Serra caught St-Pierre with a big punch early and St-Pierre never recovered, taking more shots until starting to tap just as it was stopped in the first round. But St-Pierre won a one-sided rematch a year later. With hindsight, St-Pierre said that he fell victim to pressure, and the reality is, in a fight with a big puncher, there is always the chance of the punch landing right. But it was really just a big punch landing and the second fight was nothing like the first.
Serra only got a title shot as a gimmick, based on winning a season of The Ultimate Fighter, and he barely squeaked by Chris Lytle in a close decision to win the finale. Many would compare Holm barely getting past Raquel Pennington as a similar reason to think she had no shot with Rousey.
Despite the one-sided nature and conclusive finish, early Las Vegas odds for a rematch show Rousey as a -250 favorite.
The bookmakers took a bath on Saturday, more than for any fight in UFC history. It was a combination of the upset, and the high odds. Rousey fights had never attracted big betting numbers in the past.
Jay Kornegay, the Westgate sports book director, said that most sports books in Las Vegas were crushed, and that the fight drew more betting than an average NFL game, the first time ever for a Rousey fight.
