MMA Severity Index introduced at 2017 ABC convention

This is the address I gave to the members of the 2017 Association of Boxing Conventions. 

With your help and support, time will prove that the development of the MMA Severity Index is among the most significant improvements in fighter safety of this decade. As always, it’s useful to understand history.

In 1974 two professors of neurosurgery in Scotland developed the Glasgow Coma Scale to assess a patient’s state of consciousness. It’s now in use by EMS, nurses, and doctors everywhere in the western world.

On this exact day 14 years ago, at the ABC convention in St. Louis, Dr. Flip Homansky presented the Boxing Severity Index, which was inspired by the Glasgow Coma Scale. The BSI calculates a boxer’s risk of suffering an acute or chronic brain injury based on recent record, number of knock outs suffered, age, and career length.

The BSI isn’t a hard numerical means to disqualify professional fighters from pursuing their livelihood. It is rather an objective means to identify boxers that should be evaluated in a more in-depth manner.

Commissioner Martha Shen-Urquidez from the California State Athletic Commission and CSAC Executive Officer Andy Foster, both retired fighters and progressive regulators, modified the BSI and developed a beta version of the Mixed Martial Arts Severity Index. They brought me in as my capacity as the official MMA records keeper and I first tested it anecdotally. We all know fighters that maybe shouldn’t be fighting, I do, and to a one, the beta MMASI worked – the fighters that I know should be looked at further were identified as being in need of being looked at further.

Andy then applied the MMASI to every active fighter in California by hand using a looong spreadsheet, and again, it worked. Those fighters identified beforehand as being in need of further evaluation were indeed in need of further evaluation according to the beta MMASI. I cannot emphasize enough how important this was. Most things don’t work on life, but the formula Ms. Shen-Urquidez and Mr. Foster created really did really work, first time.

What happened next took the MMASI to the next level. Ms. Shen-Urquidez secured the services of comScore Senior Vice President and statistician David Algranati. Numbers tell profound truths but you have to understand the language of numbers. Few people do. I don’t. David Algranti is a master.

Ms. Shen-Urquidez went further still and secured support for Mr. Algranati’s efforts from the Contact Sports Foundation.

Mr. Algranati has been running regressions and other mathematical manipulations that lead to further refining the MMASI. While the finished product is not expected until early in the Fall, I wanted to give a glimpse at the state of the art.

Activity
1 or 0 fights in last two years = +1

Age
35+ = +1
44+ = +2

Cage Age
60+ rounds = +1
75+ rounds = +2

Recent Record
Lost 5+ in a row = +2
Lost 3 or 4 of last 5 = +1
Won 3 of last 4 = -1

T/KO or Technical Sub
4+ in 2 years = +3
2-3 in two years = +2
In last bout = +1

Without identifying the fighter by name, the MMASI was applied to a multi combat sports figure recently in the news. In the past two years, the fighter was 1-4 in MMA and 1-7 across combat sports.

Combined combat sports record
•August 29, 2015: MMA Loss via KO (punch)
•December 18, 2015: MMA Loss via KO
•March 4, 2016: MMA Loss via KO
•April 15, 2016: MMA Win via TKO
•July 15, 2016: MMA Loss via TKO
•September 9, 2016: BOXING Loss via Unanimous Decision
•December 12, 2016: BOXING Loss via TKO
•April 7, 2017: SUPER BOXING Loss via KO

Activity = 0
1 or 0 fights in last two years = +1

Age = 0
35 +1
44 +2

Cage Age = +2, as fighter had 60 MMA rounds and fought 5+ years
60 +1
75 +2
5+ years = +1

Recent Record +1, as fighter lost 4 of the last 5
Lost 5+ in a row = +2
Lost 3 of last 5 = +1
Won 3 of last 4 = -1

T/KO of Technical Sub +3, as fighter lost six times via T/KO in the last two years
4+ in 2 years = +3
2-3 in two years = +2
In last bout = +1

Total +6The fighter in question had an MMASI of +6 which would indicate that he needed further evaluation. Further, in his next

The fighter in question had an MMASI of +6 which would indicate that he needed further evaluation. Further, in his next fight he fought a fighter who was a -1. Mr. Algranti evaluated a recent one year period, looking at the record of each fighter, going back to the beginning of MMA. In every case when a +6 faces a -1, the -1 wins via KO. That happened here when the fighter fought on June 16, 2017.

The MMASI is being refined and feedback is being solicited and when it is ready it will be added to the MMA database and fighter safety will be improved and that is what we are all all about.