Meltzer: Fan shift from UFC to stars causing ratings plummet

UFC on Versus did a 0.67 rating and 681,000 viewers, the lowest rated live event in the history of the company. The previous low was on 8/1, also on Versus, headlined by Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko, which did a 0.86 rating and 991,000 viewers. So when it comes to viewers, this was down 31% from the what had been the company’s all-time low for a live show, even behind the 2/26 prelims on Ion that had no advertising behind it (the rating was significantly lower on 2/26 because Ion is available in far more homes than Versus).

The idea that people don’t have Versus and therefore the rating is lower misses another point widely misunderstood. The rating on cable is based on the percentage of homes that have the station that are watching the show. If Versus is in 75 million homes, the rating is based on that number. If Spike is in 100 million homes, the rating is based on that number. An 0.67 sucks for a live UFC show, being barely half of last year’s average.

It is still significantly higher than Versus averages, but one would hope a show they spend tons of money for rights would do better than average based on a network that shows tons of rerun programming nightly in prime time.

No matter how you may want to try and spin that UFC number, it’s very bad. The show was barely higher than the final WEC show (0.62 and 615,000 viewers) on the station in December. And when the Stanley Cup finals this year were on Versus, they still averaged more than 3 million viewers per game.

It wasn’t a big marquee card, but it still was headlined by Diego Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann, which should have done at least average ratings. Sanchez has headlined three prior live TV shows. He did a 1.51 against Clay Guida, a 1.25 against Joe Riggs and a 1.47 against Karo Parisyan. So two out of three were average to above average. Kampmann headlined once on TV previously, against Carlos Condit, did a 1.36. It was, on paper overall an average level free TV show main event, and Sanchez has good name recognition from being with the promotion as a star since the first season of The Ultimate Fighter in 2005.

The undercard didn’t have strong name value, but most TV undercards don’t, so the issue is UFC fans picking and choosing and skipping even what would be considered average quality television events even if they are free.

You certainly can’t blame the show quality. It was a very good overall show, and the main event was a match of the year candidate. That’s not going to have much of an affect on ratings, but the show didn’t have any turn-off factor as the show went on like a series of Nik Lentz vs. Andre Winner matches would do. I think it’s more a continuation of a pattern which has been going on since last summer. Because of so many events, most UFC fans have become fans of big stars and big matches, and no longer of the UFC brand itself. Just the brand name alone is not worth what it was to getting people to watch a show, even from one year ago.

Most of the upcoming PPV shows will do very well because every show of the foreseeable future has either a good lineup or a big name in the main event. But two of the three so far this year have done below what in 2009 would have been considered the lowest possible number possible, one headlined by a title match, and the other headlined by B.J. Penn, who, with the exception of Brock Lesnar, should be the company’s biggest drawing card who isn’t a champion.

On 3/3, both TNA and UFC were hurt by tough competition, most notably American Idol in the first hour, which did 26 million viewers, as well as an NBA game featuring LeBron James, the biggest ratings draw in that sport. That can explain some of the UFC decline, but when you are talking about that level of a drop from the lowest of all-time, and with a strong action show, it doesn’t explain it. Just going head-to-head with TNA doesn’t explain it, as if anything, UFC, being the more prominent organization, should have taken the bite out of TNA. It’s not like TNA takes a bite out of NBA ratings on Thursdays.

This is a pivotal year for UFC because it’s their contract year with Spike. A rating on Versus, a lower rated network, probably won’t factor much if any into what kind of a deal UFC can get for television rights in the open market. However, the significant decline of the past year is a trend and the 3/26 rating of the Spike special could play into the value at contract time. Where UFC has an edge is that The Ultimate Fighter reality show numbers have stayed strong, and they are coming off one of the better rated seasons due to Georges St. Pierre coaching, and this coming season is expected to be one of the two best rated seasons in history due to Lesnar as a coach.

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