Dropping weight classes does not appear to help
Michael Hutchinson recently looked at the wins and losses for fighters that change divisions, and it does not appear to make a significant difference.
There is precious little journalism in the MMA media. This blog is no exception. Bickering on Twitter is covered breathlessly, while potentially deadly issues like weight cutting receive scant attention.
Bloody Elbow is a noble exception, regularly offering interesting and in depth coverage of the real issues of the day.
There is a widespread belief that severe weight cutting is necessary. However, Michael Hutchinson recently looked at the wins and losses for fighters who changed divisions, and it does not appear to make a significant difference.
UFC Fighters find little success when changing weight classes
Michael Hutchinson breaks down the statistics on why a change in weight class more often results in failure.
According to statistics, a change in weight class is usually a short term way to prolong a career, not a way to find success. Out of 107 fighters that have made a permanent weight class change while in the UFC, only 38 ended up with a winning record in their new weight class. Meanwhile, 45 of the fighters ended up with losing records in their new weight class, along with 24 having an even record.
The most damning statistic for weight class changes comes when comparing the fighter’s record in their new weight class to their old weight class. Only 20 out of 107 fighters ended up with a better record in their new weight class, 42 ended up with a comparable record while 45 ended up with a worse record.
Out of the 107 fighters that made permanent weight class changes, 90 fighters made the change to a lower weight class while 17 moved up in weight. The statistics also showed that moving up in weight and moving down in weight resulted in a similar winning percentage, 52.38% for up and 52.16% for down. The winning percentage of fighters before a weight class change was 57.1%.
The reason for the decrease in success for fighters who change weight classes can be the result of multiple things. Fighters who go down in weight often give up the speed advantage that they had in their heavier weight class. Fighters also dehydrate themselves more to reach a lower weight class, meaning they have less energy and are more susceptible to a knockout.
There is also the reasoning that the lower winning percentage is just a result of a fighter getting older. Very few fighters end up with higher winning percentages the longer they continue fighting. The data is not meant to prove that weight class changes do not work at all, but that changing weight classes isn’t a reliable way to make a career resurgence when struggling to stay in the UFC.
