10 top MMA trainers on how Conor can win, or can’t

The conventional wisdom is that Conor McGregor has as much chance of beating Floyd Mayweather in the boxing ring in August 26, as he would vs. Michael Phelps in a pool or Usain Bolt on the track. However, Brett Okamoto for ESPN interviewed some of the top trainers in MMA, and some of them give McGregor some chance, and plot a path, however slim, to victory for McGregor.

Some coaches, however, did not, with a number citing the different length of championship time. Boxing is 12×3, with 11 minutes of rest, totaling 47 minutes. MMA is 5×5 with 4 minutes of rest, totaling 29 minutes. And McGregor shows fatigue in MMA. And MayMac is boxing.

Jason Parillo from RVCA VA Sport perhaps tellingly comes from boxing; he was 8-0 as a pro before injury forced retirement. He sees the contest as being about money, and says that while McGregor has the power to hurt Mayweather, he won’t touch him.

Justin Buchholz from Team Alpha Male counsels McGregor to be hyper aggressive the first three rounds, and if he feels like he is going to get KOed in Round 4, shoot a double and take the DQ. Unfortunately for that scenario, a DQ in boxing results in loss of purse. And McGregor’s contract reportedly is explicit about massive penalties for trying prohibited MMA moves.

Henri Hooft from Combat Club MMA says Mayweather ends it when he wants to, but he admires the money and the spectacle of it all.

Trevor Wittman from Grudge Training Center says McGregor showed problems with long range strikes vs. Nate Diaz, and that Mayweather is a master at staying outside. Wittman further notes that Mayweather learns round to round, and after Round 1, McGregor will have nothing.

Brandon Gibson from Jackson-WinkMMA thinks the fight will be between one of the greatest boxers ever and someone with no boxing experience, and he’s right.

And then there were the five who give McGregor some chance, and explain how.

Firas Zahabi, Tristar MMA

“The one X factor is we still don’t know the limit of Conor’s left hand. Will it knock someone out as efficiently as it does in MMA? He was born with a gift. That’s a gift. Nobody ever knows how that’s done. It’s a mystery, that kind of power. Boxing coaches have tried to duplicate it. We’re not crazy, we’re trying to figure out how that’s done, what it is exactly that makes someone hit that hard — and no one truly knows. No one can say that has been discovered. I don’t think it will go 12 rounds. Either Conor catches him early or Mayweather puts him away in the later rounds.”

Mike Winkeljohn, Jackson-Wink MMA

“What Conor can bring to the table is maybe some offline angles with his footwork that comes out of MMA and will be something Floyd might not be used to. Attack where Floyd can’t hide behind his shoulder. We’re going to know one way or the other right away. Conor comes with a game plan of attacking Floyd in a way he has never seen before. Once it fails, or I should say “if” it fails, then it will fall into a traditional boxing match, which obviously favors Floyd. I’ll tell you what though, Conor’s got a smart camp and they’re going to come up with something.”

Robert Follis, Xtreme Couture

“Conor’s striking is good, but I’ve got pro guys who will go to the boxing gym and work with some 14-year-old amateur who has 40 fights and they get picked apart. If Conor goes out there and tries to box with him, look slick, he’ll get a hell of a payday and look real silly. If he can go in there and hang on his head, dirty box, take warnings from the referee, lose a point even — but potentially wear on him and be physical with him… It’s pretty tough for them to disqualify someone in that big of a fight, you know what I mean? Minus biting Floyd’s ear or throwing him out of the ring, he can get away with hanging on the head and dirty boxing. If he does round after round and then unleashes some of that power?”

Duke Roufus, Roufusport MMA

“When fighters press Floyd, that’s where he’s magic. Conor almost needs to be like a jiu-jitsu guy who needs you to come into his guard. Stay back, use your reach and show him a style he’s never seen before. I give him a 20 percent chance if he does that, I really believe that.”

Mike Brown, American Top Team

“Whether it’s 5 percent, 10 percent — whatever it is, it’s low. But I think what McGregor does have is that Mayweather is the oldest he’s ever been. He’s slightly worse than he’s ever been. McGregor is a big guy, maybe the biggest guy Mayweather has ever fought or close to it. He’s a southpaw and he’s doesn’t move like a traditional boxer. So, the angles Mayweather is used to seeing are slightly off. … The only way he can win is getting Mayweather with a shot that he doesn’t see coming, hurting him and finishing him. You never know if that big shot could land.”

Fun fanmade promo:

Mayweather is now only a -500 favorite to win. McGregor now has better odds than half of Mayweather’s last 10 opponents. Andre Berto (-3000), Marcos Maidana (-600), Marcos Maidana (-900), Robert Guerrero (-600), and Miguel Cotto (-700).

That’s crazy.