UGer Universally recently posted an “I’m 100% Sure” argument for Dustin Poirier beating Conor McGregor in the main event of UFC 257 on Saturday. What do you think UG, will Universally be Nostradamus or Eating Crow?
Conor is a -290 favorite, but I think other numbers tell the tale of how this fight will go. Some might say that Dustin at +245 is an example of the bookies knowing people will bet with their ignorant hearts rather than with their heads.
Let’s look at an unbiased head-to-head comparison:
Most recent fight:
•Dustin: Just 7 months ago, a win vs. the #6 ranked guy who’s in the co-main of this week’s card.
•Conor: A full year ago, against unranked Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (Possible ring rust).
Last 5 fights:
•Dustin: 4-1 (only loss was to GOAT)
•Conor: 3-2 (choked out twice, frantically tapping each time; barely won majority decision vs. journeyman Nate Diaz that most experts saw as a Diaz win)
Losses by KO:
•Dustin: 2 (last one was 5 years ago, seemed like a fluke to some of us).
•Conor: 0 (although outstruck by Diaz in first fight and gassing like nobody’s business and barely outstriking Nate 166-164 in 2nd fight before eking out Majority Decision).
Losses by submission:
•Dustin: 2
•Conor: 4 (mostly panic taps, according to experts).
Results vs. Common Opponents:
•Dustin: Beat Joe Duffy like a f***ing drum, took three knees to the head while grounded vs. Eddie Alvarez, destroyed him in the rematch; gave Khabib Nurmagomedov all he could handle for three rounds; landed 178 significant strikes vs. record-breaking mature Max Holloway in FOTN performance.
•Conor: Tapped in 38 seconds vs. Duffy; caught Alvarez with lucky punch in 2nd round; was outstruck by Khabib before going full WWE and telling him it was just business before tapping frantically; landed just 53 strikes against young Holloway in forgettable 3-rounder 8 years ago.
Head to Head:
•Young, inexperienced Poirier made rookie mistake and got caught with lucky punch.
•Mature Conor took advantage of Dustin’s youth to land lucky punch.
