Massachusetts-based Rick Caldwell has been involved in MMA for decades in a broad range of capacities. It used to be many households had a landline, answering machine, alarm clock, GPS, camera, camcorder, scanner, tape recorder, calculator, and a bunch of torn maps. Now everyone has a cell phone that does it all. Rick is the Samsung Galaxy S21 Ultra. In his latest post on The UG, “RickMassMMA” broke down what could be next for the UFC’s lightweight division.

Based on all the available info on 2/2, here’s my best guess at what happens at 155 … not what I “want” to happen, what actually happens. I’m curious how close I end up being over the next six months.

Khabib Nurmagomedov will fight GSP, likely with no title on the line though, as both guys say they have no intention of defending it. With Ramadan being April 12 – May 12, the likely timeframe is July.

There’s so many moving parts in the division right now, and I don’t think the UFC is in a rush to crown a champion. The belts are usually used to legitimize an event, a fight etc, and is a promotional tool when trying to sell how good someone is. However, we KNOW Khabib is the king, and how off would it feel to see Dustin Poirier walking around as the undisputed champion in May with Khabib scheduled to fight GSP a couple months later?

Charles Oliveira keeps turning down fights (short notice vs. Michael Chandler twice, and has publicly said he doesn’t want the Justin Gaethje fight the UFC is trying to make) because he wants to fight for the belt next. With the UFC in no rush to schedule a title fight, I think he basically sits on the sidelines for a short time. This is not a big deal either, because his fight with Tony Ferguson was recent, and it’s not uncommon for him (or anyone else) to fight every 5-6 months. I don’t think he gets a booking in the short term because he’ll keep turning down what’s offered unless it’s for a belt (and it won’t be) and ultimately will take something after Khabib vs. GSP gets announced and he realizes he won’t be fighting for the belt soon.

Conor McGregor definitely fights again this year, likely in July. He wants the Poirier fight, and it’s the biggest payday for “The Diamond.” The ONLY hold up, in my opinion, is that Poirier might prefer a title fight, and they won’t give Conor a title shot coming off a KO loss when so many other guys are looking great. However, lately Poirier is saying he doesn’t NEED the belt, will sit back and wait until the right fight presents itself, etc, so I think the Conor booking is easy to make. It works out well for Conor too because even if he loses, he always has the Nate Diaz trilogy fight as a last cash grab. Conor won’t retire regardless of what happens in his career without fighting Diaz again, even if they’re 40 at the time.

Diaz vs Gaethje is likely. I’m all but convinced of it, and the only holdup now is that Diaz is angling for something a little bigger because he thinks he can get it. Poirier or Conor would sell better, and that’s all Diaz really cares about, but when it becomes obvious that Poirier is rematching Conor, Diaz takes the Gaethje fight. I’ve heard rumblings it’s the fight that’s been talked about prior to Gaethje’s recent interviews, and jabs at Diaz on social media, and Gaethje isn’t the type of guy to talk s*** about a guy who hasn’t fought in forever without having a reason.

Ferguson fights Paul Felder. Is the easiest fight of all to pick. Felder has talked about only wanting “big” fights, so he’s not fighting a prospect, and Ferguson needs a win over a tough opponent – easiest fight in history to match. If he can’t beat Felder, his days of competing for a belt are done, and if he beats Felder, no big deal, Felder can retire like he’s been talking about anyway. No downside, and it’s a fun fight.

Assuming Oliveira turns down Chandler again (it’ll be offered again but not short notice), Chandler fights RDA. Unless, of course the Diaz fight falls through for Gaethje, because I think the UFC intends to match Gaethje vs. Chandler, if they don’t make Diaz vs. Gaethje.

The obvious variable here is Charles…if he realizes he’s not getting a title shot, he may accept the Gaethje or Chandler fights. I don’t think he will right away, and I think everyone else starts accepting whatever is offered.

If Diaz wants to hold out for Poirier or Conor, and Oliveira holds out for a title shot, and Poirier doesn’t take anything in the short term because he wants Conor, then Chandler and Gaethje get matched up, because they’re the only guys in the Top 5 willing to fight anyone, and it wouldn’t shock me if Dana White put the title on the line just to shove it up everyone’s ass who didn’t take the fights he wanted them to take.

Since I did a bunch of hedging, and if/then s***, here’s my actual predictions for what gets matched

I’m curious what I end up getting right/wrong.