When UFC president Dana White announced that Brock Lesnar was retiring from MMA, there was widespread speculation that the real cause must have been a failed anti-doping test. However, Dave Meltzer, who knows more about the combined worlds of MMA and professional wrestling that anyone on the planet, offers a different understanding. Meltzer touches on whether Lesnar’s latest return talk might have mainly a leverage point to get more money from the WWE, and he notes the immediate cause – with all UFC PPVs now having to go through ESPN+, a double paywall, Lesnar wanted a fixed guarantee not PPV points, and the UFC wouldn’t meet those terms.

Or maybe UFC president Dana White just used the retirement message as a means to push Lesnar to sign.

Brock Lesnar had a certain price he wanted that was worth it to him to go through a hard training camp at 42 and then get into the cage with an all-time great fighter and athlete in Cormier. UFC didn’t meet the offer.

Plus, WWE has continued to offer Lesnar strong deals for limited dates, and on a Lesnar schedule, pro wrestling is far safer and offers considerably more longevity.

Lesnar went so far as to enter the USADA testing pool last year and was eligible to fight again in February. Lesnar also, in July, shot an angle where, after Cormier beat Miocic for the championship, Lesnar shoved him hard across the octagon. From all accounts, while Cormier immediately pegged it as an angle and was probably more happy than mad, it was not something the two set up and Cormier didn’t know it was coming. Cormier didn’t brace or anything instinctive like he would if he knew it was coming.

Exactly what the real story here was, only Lesnar and perhaps his closest friends know. I never bought that he would fight again, even after doing the angle with Cormier. It was amazing that UFC allowed that angle to play on their show without any kind of a deal with Lesnar to actually do the fight.

Either way, he had to enter the USADA program both to negotiate with both sides, because without entering into it, WWE would know he couldn’t fight for another six months and wasn’t truly serious about returning. 

Vince McMahon kept signing him to new deals at the last minute when Lesnar had given notice and claimed he was leaving. It became a thing where McMahon didn’t want to lose Lesnar, and with the Saudi Arabia money, could justify paying him similar money for what he would make in UFC. For Lesnar, it’s only logical to do pro wrestling on the limited schedule, sign short-term deals, and make it clear he could leave at any time because of both the UFC money, and with the idea he still wanted to compete in the sport.

There is no word whether Lesnar has pulled out of USADA testing. While he could always come back, it would be a six-month delay if you wanted to fight again. My feeling is if he pulls out, he’s probably in his mind decided not to fight. If he doesn’t pull out, this is all a public negotiation by White looking to get Lesnar to lower his price because unlike virtually every other potential UFC fighter, Lesnar has no financial concerns and can play hardball and wait for them to come up with a deal he likes.

Lesnar rejoined the testing pool, although took some time doing so, and has been eligible to fight since February. Lesnar was tested twice this year. 

One can look back at the last seven years and largely come to the conclusion that Lesnar has made more money than probably any wrestler in history, or if not, very close to that, working a very limited schedule by playing both sides. He’s been in a unique position where everyone knows he could have made millions fighting.

If Lesnar truly wanted to be a fighter and win the championship, with the idea that UFC was unfinished business because he was never fully healthy the first time, he wouldn’t have waited until he was past 40. He wouldn’t have kept signing new WWE deals and wouldn’t have stayed past WrestleMania last year. Lesnar is all about the money, not proving to himself he could be a world champion in a real sport. Still, UFC clearly, by allowing him to do the angle and continually pushing that the fight would happen well into the early part of this year, had to have believed he was serious.

There was also a big factor even if he was truly entertaining fighting at this point. Given the move from television PPV to streaming, with the corresponding expected major drop in PPV buys, Lesnar, like Jon Jones and Conor McGregor, have to sign deals based on guaranteed money rather than a percentage of the PPV. At the same time, UFC, with the ESPN deal, doesn’t have the financial pressure of needing to do so. UFC doesn’t need Lesnar back nearly as bad now as they would have when they were openly talking about it. If Lesnar was seriously considering coming back, and for Lesnar, every play is economics, the situation had changed significantly as far as the nature of the deal that would have to be offered.

Via the Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription