Author: Universally
Member Since: 4/21/12
I used the list on Tapology for this. I don’t know where they get their odds from, but they’re close enough to the ones on bestfightodds.com.
#10: Roxanne Modafferi (+525) vs. Maycee Barber (-850), January 2020: Some online books had Barber as high as -1000. Even though Roxy has only been finished four times in 42 pro fights, the prop odds said the over/under was 1.5 rounds and Fight doesn’t go to decision was favored at -260. Oooops… Roxy derailed the Barber Hype Train with a 30-27X2, 30-26 domination.
#9: Johnny Eduardo (+600) vs. Eddie Wineland (-900), May 2014: Eduardo hadn’t fought in 2 years and was 1-1 in UFC. He had a lot of fight miles on him: More than 30 fights in 18 years as a pro. Besides the sweet payday you would have gotten by picking him straight up to win, you could have also bet Eduardo by (T)KO at +1500, which is how he won in the very first round.
#8: Frankie Edgar (+588) vs. BJ Penn (-900), April 2010: BJ came into the fight having won 2 in a row and 5 of his last 6, all by finish. Frankie was on a 3-fight win streak, with his most recent win coming against Matt Veach (who went 1-2 in UFC and departed for the regional circuit). Frankie won a controversial UD: 8 of 9 MMA media scored it for BJ, as did 68% of fans on mmadecisions.com. BJ would only win 1 fight the rest of his career after this loss.
#7: Mike Wilkinson (+555) vs. Niklas Backstrom (-900), October 2014: I have no idea why the odds were so big on this one. These guys had only 3 UFC fights combined before they met. Wilkinson was 8-1 as a pro and Backstrom was 8-0. Wilkinson KO’d Backstrom, and after each guy had one more UFC fight they were both gone from UFC.
#6: TJ Dillashaw (+650) vs. Renan Barao (-1000), May 2014: Barao entered the fight as the BW champ with a ridiculous 32-1 record, with his only loss coming in his pro debut 9 years earlier. Dillashaw was 9-2, with a 5-2 UFC record and had won his last fight after a split decision loss to Assuncao. One of the interesting prop bets was the over/under, which was 4 ½ rounds: The fight ended at 2:26 of the 5th round, when Dillashaw finished Barao with a head kick and punches. Five more seconds and the Over would have paid +190. Dillashaw by (T)KO was a huge +2000 underdog bet. After the fight Barao would go on to drop 7 of his next 9 and leave the UFC. Dillashaw went 6-2 with five post-fight bonuses since then and was suspended in 2019 for 2 years. He’s eligible to fight again in January 2021.
#5: Frankie Saenz (+700) vs. Iuri Alcantara (-1000), February 2015: Alcantara was 32-5, with a 6-2 UFC record, and riding a 3-fight win streak. Saenz was 8-2, with his only UFC fight a UD win over a guy named Nolan Ticman. In their picks and predictions article before the fight the staff at Bloody Elbow, famous for the Bloody Elbow Curse in which they unanimously pick one fighter to win only for him to end up losing, went 100% for Alcantara. Welcome to the Bloody Elbow Curse, Iuri.
#4: Khama Worthy (+640) vs. Devonte Smith (-1000), August 2019: This was Worthy’s first UFC fight. He was 14-6 on the regional circuit. Smith came in 2-0 in UFC plus a win on Contender Series, with all 3 wins by 1st round KO. Well, this one also ended in the 1st round by KO. The prop bet Worthy wins by (T)KO was available at +1100. The Bloody Elbow Curse struck again: Their entire staff agreed that Smith would win.
#3: Matt Serra (+850) vs. Georges St.-Pierre (-1300), April 2007: Serra had a 5-4 UFC record and was on only a 1-fight winning streak when he challenged for the WW belt. GSP came into the fight on a 6-fight winning streak, his most recent win earning him the WW title against Hughes. He left the fight without the belt after Serra pulled off what some consider the biggest upset ever with a 1st round KO finish. Serra would give back the belt in his next fight, when he was once again a substantial underdog (+300) against GSP.
#2: Shana Dobson (+950) vs. Mariya Agapova (-1400), August 2020: Agapova got a lot of love from the bookies because, well, I guess because she’s a chick who finishes fights. She was 9-1, with five first-round finishes. Dobson, on the other hand, entered the fight with a 3-4 record and she had dropped 3 in a row in UFC, most recently a KO loss in the first round against a woman who was herself on a 3-fight losing streak. Why Dobson was still on the roster was sort of a mystery, but she saved her job with a 2nd round TKO of Agapova. In prop odds, Dobson wins by (T)KO was a sweet +1950. I’m sure some kook put $5 down on that one and is still bragging about it.
#1: Holly Holm (+830) vs. Ronda Rousey (-1400), November 2015: What can you say about this one? Rousey had finished her 3 previous opponents in a combined 1 minute 4 seconds. She had only gone past the 1st round once in her 12 wins. Six of Holm’s 9 wins came against chicks who don’t have Wikipedia pages, and she’d gone the distance in her 2 UFC fights. Fight doesn’t go to a decision was a ridiculous -1475 favorite. The over/under was 1 ½ rounds. Holm fought a nearly perfect fight. After this fight Rousey would have only one more UFC fight (a 1st round finish, ironically) and Holm would go 4-5 and finish only one other opponent in her next nine fights.
